This year, National Retail Federation data showed that 67% of back-to-school shopping was well underway by the beginning of July. That early start represented a 55% increase from 2024 and the highest rate the trade group had recorded since 2018.
The backward creep of back-to-school shopping is hard to miss, especially for those doing it. But why are parents scouring the web and flooding big-box stores earlier and earlier each year?
In 2025, according to a just-released white paper from Alix Partners, it’s because they are “spooked by tariffs and inventory gaps.”
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores, and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” The NRF’s vp of industry and consumer insights Katherine Cullen said in a press statement. Tariff fears pop up in a recent Harris Poll, too.
But historic consumer research reveals that for years, an uncertain and turbulent economy has been putting financial pressure on parents that has pushed back-to-school shopping earlier for years.
This year, there’s clear consensus that fears of tariffs are sending parents scrambling. But turn back the clock two years and the prevailing fear was inflation, according to a 2023 Explorer Research study. And three years before that? Covid-19.
A Deloitte study from 2020 found that, thanks to Covid paralyzing the global supply chain, nearly half of parents (47%) were “concerned about out-of-stock items.” Another problem: Since it wasn’t clear when school would even start in 2020, parents were unsure of when to shop and how much to buy—which is why 66% said they were worried about kids going back to school, period.
Retail analyst Bruce Winder observed that Covid struck so much fear into consumers that there’s still plenty to go around, especially at back-to-school time.
“Since the pandemic, shoppers have been on a permanent fight or flight response to weave through a combination of inflation, supply-chain shortages, tariff wars, and geopolitical turbulence,” he said.
But parents were anxious before Covid, too. A 2018 Coinstar survey revealed that 70% considered back-to-school shopping “stressful.” Respondents worried about rising costs, plus the added burdens of extracurricular activities.
